BILLINGS FAMILY LIFE CENTRE CONFERENCE
SATURDAY 26 FEBRUARY 2005
THE MOST CRITICAL ISSUE IN AUSTRALIA TODAY IS THE FERTILITY ISSUE
THIS CONFERENCE WILL MAINLY LOOK AT THE MEDICAL IMPEDEMENTS TO FERTILITY
HOWEVER THE SOCIAL IMPEDEMENTS HAVE THEIR PART TO PLAY
FERTILITY IS DEFINED AS THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF CHILDREN BORN OF WOMEN OF CHILD BEARING AGE BETWEEN 15 AND 45 YEARS.
THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE OF 2.1 CHILDREN PER WOMEN OF CHILD BEARING AGE IS ACCEPTED AS THE REPLACEMENT LEVEL.
ANYTHING BELOW THIS 2.1 RATE IS A CAUSE FOR CONCERN
FIRSTLY SOME AUSTRALIAN FERTILITY HISTORY
DURING THE 1930’S DEPRESSION THE FERTILITY RATE SLUMPED TO 2.1 WHICH IS THE BARE REPLACEMENT LEVEL
AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR THE RATE PEAKED AT 3.1 IN 1947
BETWEEN THE END OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR AND THE EARLY SIXTIES THE RATE DECLINED
IN 1961 THE RATE AGAIN PEAKED AT 3.55 AS THE BABY BOOMERS THEMSELVES HAD THEIR OWN CHILDREN
BUT BY 1971 THE RATE HAD EASED TO 2.95
FROM THIS POINT THE RATE DECLINED SHARPLY TO 2.06 IN 1976 BEING BELOW THE REPLACEMENT RATE FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE 1976 THE RATE HAS DROPPED IN MOST YEARS TO 1.8 IN 1996 TO 1.73 IN 2001
2
“THE” SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IS ABORTION
IT IS OUR CONTENTION THAT THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE RATE IN THE EARLY 1970’S WAS DUE TO THE READY AVAILABLITY OF ABORTION ON DEMAND
OUR ASSOCIATION BELIEVES THAT THE CURRENT ANNUAL RATE OF ABORTION IS ABOUT 90,000 PER YEAR NOT THE 100,000 PRESENTLY BANDIED AROUND
THIS REPRESENTS THE ABORTION OF ONE PRIMARY SCHOOL OF CHILDREN EVERY DAY OF EVERY YEAR FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS
THIS IS CLEARLY “THE” SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE DROP OF FERTILITY AS I HAVE OUTLINED
CHILDREN OF MIGRANTS BORN HERE ARE ALREADY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN OUR FIGURES
THIS NEGATIVE IMPACT OF EASY ABORTION IS NOW BEEN INFLUENCED BY MAJOR SOCIAL CHANGES AS OUTLINED BY OUR RESEARCH
MEN AND WOMEN APART
OUR RECENT RESEARCH PAPER PREPARED BY THE CENTRE FOR POPULATION AND URBAN RESEARCH AT MONASH UNIVERSITY STUDIED PARTNERING TRENDS AS DISCLOSED BY THE 1986, 1996 AND 2001 CENSUSES
REMEMBER THE CENSUS IS WHAT WE HAVE TOLD THE GOVERNMENT AND THEREFORE HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF CREDIBILITY
THE STUDY DISCOVERED TWO NEW NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON FERTILITY LEVELS THAT IN OUR VIEW ARE YET TO HAVE AN IMPACT
THESE NEW IMPACTS ARE-
1 A DECLINE IN PARTNERING LEVELS PARTICULARLY MARRIAGE
AND
2 A SIGNIFICENT PROPORTION OF MEN OF MARRIAGEABLE AGE THAT CANNOT AFFORD TO MARRY
4
FERTILITY IS CLOSELY LINKED TO LEVELS OF PARTNERING.
MARRIED WOMEN HAVE MORE CHILDREN THAN DEFACTO OR SINGLE MOTHERS.
“MOST” WOMEN WILL NOT CHOOSE TO HAVE A CHILD UNTIL THEY ARE IN A SECURE RELATIONSHIP
THIS SECURITY OF RELATIONSHIP IS CRITICAL TO THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN A WOMAN HAS IN HER REPRODUCTIVE YEARS
FACTOR 1 MARRIAGE RATES ARE DECLINING
MEN AGED 30 TO 34
65% WERE MARRIED
WOMEN AGED 30 TO 34
72% WERE MARRIED
FACTOR 2 MORE WOMEN ARE CHILDLESS
MOST WOMEN WOULD HAVE HAD A CHILD BY 39 YEARS
IN 2001 WOMEN AGED 35 TO 39 WITH NO CHILDREN WERE
MARRIED 13 % DEFACTO 37%
FACTOR 3 MARRIED WOMEN ARE DECLINING
1996 2001
WIFE 67% 62%
DEFACTO WITH PARTNER 6% 8%
DIVORCED 10% 10%
NEVER MARRIED PARENT 2% 3%
NEVER MARRIED SINGLE 14% 17%
FACTOR 4 HOW FERTILE ARE THE WOMEN IN DIFFERENT RELATIONSHIPS
1996 WOMEN AGED 35 TO 39 YEARS AVERAGE NUMBER OF CHILDREN
WIFE WITH HUSBAND 2.23 CHILDREN (ABOVE REPLACEMENT)
DIVORCED 2.32 CHILDREN (ABOVE REPLACEMENT)
DEFACTO WITH PARTNER 1.65 CHILDREN (BELOW REPLACEMENT)
SINGLE MOTHERS NEVER MARRIED 1.81 CHILDREN (BELOW REPLACEMENT)
CONCLUSION THESE SOCIAL FACTORS COMBINE TO IMPACT ON OUR FERTILITY LEVELS AND ARE YET TO HAVE A FULL IMPACT
AN UNDERCLASS OF MEN CANT MARRY
THE RESEARCH DISCLOSED A SIGNIFICANT UNDERCLASS OF MEN OF MARRIAGEABLE AGE THAT CANNOT AFFORD TO MARRY AND FORM FAMILIES
ALMOST ONE IN THREE MEN OF MARRIAGABLE AGE DO NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT EDUCATION, SKILLS, JOB SECURITY AND INCOME TO SUPPORT A FAMILY
THIS GROUP OF MEN ARE GROWING
FACTOR 1 LESS MEN ARE MARRYING
FOR ALL MEN 35 TO 39
THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP
FACTOR 2 A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF LOW INCOME MEN DON’T MARRY
IN 2001 FOR MEN 35 TO 39
EARNING LESS THAN $300 PER WEEK 40 % ARE MARRIED
EARNING BETWEEN $300 AND $600 PER WEEK 55% ARE MARRIED
CONTRAST THIS WITH-
EARNING MORE THAN $1000 PER WEEK 70% ARE MARRIED
FACTOR 3 LOW EDUCATED MEN ARE PARTNERING LESS
FOR MEN 35 TO 39 WITH NO TRADE, DIPLOMA OR DEGREE SKILLS
1986 75% WERE PARTNERED
2001 59% WERE PARTNERED
FACTOR 4 FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT IS DECREASING FOR MEN
FOR MEN 35 TO 39
1986 80% HAD A FULL TIME JOB
2001 72% HAD A FULL TIME JOB
CONCLUSION FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT IS THE KEY TO INCOME AND INCOME IS THE KEY TO MARRIAGE AND MARRIAGE IS THE KEY TO FERTILITY.
THE IMPACT OF LOW FERTILITY ON OUR SOCIETY
LOW FERTILITY IS THE MAJOR CAUSE OF AUSTRALIA’S AGING POPULATION
AUSTRALIA NEEDS CHILDREN TO STIMULATE OUR ECONOMY
WE ALSO NEED CHILDREN TO PROTECT US FROM PERILS FROM WITHIN AND WITHOUT OUR COUNTRY
WE NEED CHILDREN TO ASSIST US IN OUR OLD AGE AND TO PROVIDE THE SERVICES
WE NEED CHILDREN TO BUILD AND DEVELOP OUR INFRASTRUCTURE
AN AGED AUSTRALIA WILL WEAKEN US
PHYSICALLY
MORALLY
SPIRITUALLY
WHAT MUST BE DONE?
OUR ASSOCIATION BELIEVES THAT ABORTION SHOULD BE REDUCED TO THE POINT OF INSIGNIFICANCE
WE ARE DETERMINED TO CHANGE THE CULTURE OF OUR SOCIETY
WE ARE CURRENTLY PUTTING TOGETHER A STRATEGY TO REDUCE ABORTION
2 PROMOTING MARRIAGE
THIS MEANS PROMOTING MARRIAGE FOR ITS BENEFITS FOR OUR FERTILITY
MARRIED COUPLES ARE MORE FERTILE
MARRIED SPOUSES ARE HAPPIER, HEALTHIER, WEALTHIER AND LIVE LONGER WITH LESS STRESS
CHILDREN IN MARRIED FAMILIES ARE HAPPIER, DO BETTER AT SCHOOL, ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE INVOLVED IN CRIME AND DRUGS AND HAVE LESS SOCIAL PROBLEMS
THERE ARE OVER 100,000 STUDIES WORLD WIDE
3 ASSISTING MEN TO MARRY AND HAVE FAMILIES
WE WILL SUPPORT PROGRAMS THAT BOOST RESOURCES FOR YOUNG MEN THAT NEED SKILLS, JOB OPPORTUNITIES AND INCOMES THAT SUPPORT FAMILIES
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR ALL THOSE SINGLE LOW INCOME MALES THAT CAN MARRY THERE ARE SINGLE LOW INCOME FEMALES WAITING
FOR THE SINGLE HIGH INCOME FEMALES THAT ARE “APART” FROM THE MALES THE ANSWER IS TO HELP THE MALES TO BECOME ATTRACTIVE SPOUSES
THIS MISMATCH BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN MUST BE RESOLVED AS OUR NATIONAL SECURITY DEPENDS ON IT
THIS MISMATCH BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN MUST BE RESOLVED AS OUR NATIONAL SECURITY DEPENDS ON IT